Germany is falling behind in global trade.
Germany’s share of global trade has been continuously shrinking for about a decade – particularly in key sectors such as the automotive industry and mechanical engineering. This is according to a previously unpublished analysis by the Association of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies (vfa), which was obtained by Der Spiegel. Since 2013, the Federal Republic has lost an average of approximately 0,11 percentage points of market share per year, as German exports have grown less strongly than global trade volume.
The main reasons for this development are reportedly China’s economic rise and the trade policy measures of the United States under President Donald Trump. Currently, about one-third of global trade is accounted for by the U.S. and Europe, while China already contributes about one-sixth. Together, these three economic regions represent half of global trade volume. From 2013 to 2024, China managed to increase its global market share by an average of around 0,36 percentage points per year.
However, China suffered »noticeable losses« in the U.S. market, as the analysis notes. Starting as early as 2018, during Trump’s first term, the share of Chinese exports subject to U.S. tariffs rose from just under one percent to two-thirds. By now, both countries have imposed mutual tariffs on nearly all imports. As a result, significant shifts in trade flows occurred: China compensated for its losses in the U.S. by increasing its market share in Europe, while the U.S. offset its declining business with China partly through higher exports to Europe. Europe itself benefited from these trade shifts and gained market share in the American market that would otherwise have gone to China.
Germany, however, was largely excluded from these positive effects. Instead, other EU countries secured the trade gains in Europe and the U.S. Additionally, increased Chinese exports to Europe came primarily at the expense of German suppliers.
The study identifies shortcomings in the automotive industry as a major reason for declining competitiveness. According to the analysis, the sector was too slow to embrace »key future trends« – particularly the shift toward alternative propulsion systems. The analysis is based on United Nations trade data covering more than 170 countries.
MK
